News that traditional large appliances or exit policy subsidies

On October 9, home appliance stocks soared across the board. Among them, Aucma, Huayi Compression, Shenglei Da and other 6 shares daily limit.

It is understood that the policy of home appliances going to the countryside will soon expire in January 2013, and the relevant ministries and commissions are brewing a new round of pro-consumption policies. And the new pro-consumption policy may be introduced before the end of this year, but subsidies for home appliances to the countryside will focus on energy-saving environmental protection, small and medium-sized products, previous air conditioning, refrigerators, televisions and other large items or will not be included.

First, the market warms up The corporate cold has been affected by the news that household appliances will go to the countryside or will continue to be affected. Since September, the home appliance sector has been active. Some brokerage analysts believe that the current valuation of the home appliance sector is at a historically low level, and home appliances to the countryside are expected to continue to help improve the profitability of the home appliance industry, but also open up space for the development of listed companies. Shenyin Wanguoguo Research reported that from the perspective of long-term value investment, the marginal security is still high, and the current share prices of leading enterprises Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Electric Appliances, Qingdao Haier Electronics and Hisense Electric Appliances are still at a relatively low level.

However, the above-mentioned leading companies' views are far from those of brokerage firms. In mid-September, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had organized a meeting of enterprises to discuss whether the policy of home appliances going to the countryside continued. Haier, Hisense, Midea, Gree and other mainstream home appliance manufacturers all expressed opposition.

People in the industry believe that there are three main reasons for this: First, the use of household appliances to the countryside has a significant effect on the third and fourth-tier markets. The policy has reached the desired target, and the continued implementation of the strategy will not have a significant effect on driving market growth; It is the policy that has overdrawn the market. For example, the annual growth rate of the air-conditioning industry in 2008-2011 was as high as 30%, and it increased by 90% in three years. Normally, the air-conditioning industry grows by 10% each year, which means that nine years of growth has been consumed in advance. Third, home appliances to the countryside has also revived the "Miscellaneous Brand Troops," resulting in excess production capacity and fraudulent actions, which is detrimental to the healthy development of the market. .

Second, New Deal or Adjustment of Subsidy Scope While some companies hold opposing positions, a person close to the Ministry of Commerce told the China Securities Journal that the current economic situation has contributed to the steady growth of domestic demand as the focus of decision-making, and the new pro-consumption policies have been introduced. It is a high probability event.

The above-mentioned sources also admit that the new policy on home appliances going to the countryside will not only be a simple continuation, but will be adjusted in the category of subsidies. “The subsidies in the past few years were mainly large-scale products such as air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and televisions. From the perspective of the economic conditions of farmers and the useful life of the products themselves, these large-size products are unlikely to be replaced in 3-4 years. They may be It will not be included in the new round of subsidies, while small and medium energy-saving and home decoration products will be the main subsidy focus. This will be reflected in the recently released energy-saving products and the Huimin project.” He disclosed Ministry of Commerce and other ministries and commissions are working out relevant subsidies and product range.

However, compared with subsidies that directly stimulate sales, many companies have greater expectations for improving the business environment. “If you introduce more guidance policies for industrial upgrading, or subsidize technological upgrading, it will be attractive to companies. More force," said a person in charge of a household electrical appliance company.