The automobile industry investment management regulations influence the power battery industry?
[Automotive Industry Investment Management Regulations Impact on Power Battery Industry? In recent years, with the support of national policies and market forces, investment in new energy vehicles has continued to emerge in various places. However, the development of new energy automobile industry in various regions is uneven. Some places even resorted to fraudulent subsidies and speculation as a gimmick. Large-scale production of low-end production capacity has caused great waste of resources in the development of the new energy automobile industry and has also seriously affected the industry. healthy growth. To promote the healthy development of the new energy automotive industry, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, enhance core competitiveness, and build a powerful automobile country. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued “Regulations on Investment Management of the Automotive Industry (Draft for Comment)†to relevant organizations (below). Abbreviation "opinion"). The battery China Card found that the "opinion" put forward a number of "high standards" requirements for power battery companies far beyond the current level of technology, but considering the policy formulation generally have to be forward-looking, the future investment construction companies should use this as a benchmark The "opinion" will also have guiding significance for the transformation and upgrading of China's power battery industry and the enhancement of its core competitiveness. New or expanded power battery project energy density up to 300 Wh/kg Article 18 of the "Resolutions" proposes that the products to be produced for the new vehicle power battery project, in addition to meeting national and industry-related standards, shall also meet the following conditions: 1. The specific energy of the power battery for an energy vehicle shall not be less than 300 Wh/kg, and the specific energy of the system shall not be less than 220 Wh/kg. The Battery Energy Density Statistics of China's 42 Main Battery Enterprises in 2018 According to Battery China.com, this article calls for the greatest controversy in the industry. At present, there is no domestic battery that can reach 300 watt-hours/kg. According to the “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap†released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is also required that the power battery power density of pure electric vehicles reaches this target by 2020. According to Zhou Bo, director of the Standardization Department and Industry Research Department of the Power Battery Applications Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the ternary lithium battery materials are still mainly 523 and 622 in China in 2018, and the energy density of the square battery cells can be 210-220. About watt-hours/kilograms, soft-pack batteries can do 230 watt-hours/kg, and cylinders can do 253 watt-hours/kg this year. He also predicted that 811 will enter the mass production phase in 2019, when the battery energy density can be about 250 watt-hours / kg. Battery China Network survey data show that the mainstream battery manufacturers in China this year, the main push of the battery energy density (monomer) is basically 210-230 watt-hours / kg, from the 300-watt hour / kg indicators still have a long way to go. Although domestic companies such as CATL, Lishen and Guoxuan can technically achieve 300 watt-hours/kg, they are currently only completed in laboratories or in certain environments. They are still faced with safety issues such as safety in mass production and market applications. , life cycle and other multiple challenges. In addition, the above three companies have adopted the three-element soft packet technology route that can easily achieve high specific energy density at the core level. Zhou Bo also said that within the three encapsulation technology routes, the cylinder will have certain advantages in achieving 300 watt-hours/kg in the short-term, and it is not ruled out that some of the company's production capacity that pushes the cylindrical 21700 route will take precedence over the line. According to the requirements of the "opinion", from the perspective of the current mainstream battery materials technology line, lithium iron phosphate power batteries and lithium manganese oxide power batteries, expansion or new projects are no longer likely to be approved; Sanyuan power battery will become a new batch The main group of projects. But does not rule out the emergence of new battery materials technology line, such as lithium-manganese, solid lithium batteries, but the new technology still needs more market verification. According to industry experts, under the current material system and technology level, there are still more risks in the power battery energy density of 300 Wh/kg. In the design and production of battery companies, it is not enough to emphasize a certain performance but to synthesize it. Consider, especially safety performance. If only from the perspective of curbing low-end production capacity, excessively high requirements in the formulation of policies may not be conducive to the healthy development of the entire industry. The feedback on the "Regulations on Investment Management of the Automotive Industry" (hereinafter abbreviated as the "Regulations") was closed on May 25, and industry insiders expect that the official document will be released this year with a high probability. Analysts said that if the “Regulations†are implemented this year or next year, taking into account that the project will take a certain period of time from construction to production, some battery projects with mature technology lines but energy density of less than 300 watt-hour/kg will have to reconsider the feasibility of construction. Sex, it is expected that the new or expanded power battery projects will be relatively slow in the next two years. This has also given foreign battery companies access to the Chinese market, which will have a certain impact on domestic battery companies. On the other hand, enterprises planning new projects can only accelerate production before the official release of documents. Whether the previously approved project will be adjusted due to the official release of this document has not been explained. 2. The fast charge rate of the power battery unit for a power car shall not be lower than 8C, and the remaining capacity after 2000 cycles shall not be lower than 95% of the initial capacity; the fast charge rate of a power battery system for a power car shall not be lower than 5C, and the cycle 1500 The remaining capacity after this time is not less than 95% of the initial capacity. According to the data provided by the Power Battery Application Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, in the fast-charging passenger car in 2017, the maximum system magnification is 6.42C, and the charging rate is mainly concentrated between 3C-5C. The 5C charge rate required by the "Review" is still reasonable at present. It is difficult for the market to open up fair competition to foreign investment Article 3 of the "opinion" puts forward the principle of adhering to the unified standard of domestic and foreign investment and fair competition in the market. With the gradual retreat of subsidies for new energy vehicles, more and more foreign battery companies will enter the Chinese market. According to Battery China.com, currently South Korea's LG, Samsung and Panasonic have plans or have already started battery-related projects in China. It is reported that some domestic new energy car companies have started cooperation discussions with LG and Samsung, and Panasonic is the only battery supplier for American Tesla electric vehicles. Foreign companies entering the Chinese market not only have technological advantages, but also have the advantage of branding. Affected by the increase in raw material prices in the upper reaches, the cost of domestic battery companies is currently high. The subsidy for new energy vehicles to reduce slopes has forced auto makers to lower battery prices, and the gross margin of the power battery industry has fallen to freezing point. Under the current state of technology, companies can only increase profitability through economies of scale. The scale effect means that it is necessary to reduce costs by expanding production and achieving economies of scale. Article 19 of the “Contract of Opinion†proposes that “the power battery expansion project for vehicles†is an existing vehicle battery power expansion project, and the company’s two-year annual capacity utilization rate of vehicle power batteries is higher than the industry average. No safety accidents occurred in the production and application of the product. This means that domestic companies will be subject to more restrictions in the expansion of production than foreign-funded enterprises, requiring that the utilization rate of vehicle power batteries in the previous two years be higher than the average level of the industry, which will cause some domestic companies to reduce their economies of scale. Obstacles to cost increase significantly. The newly-entered foreign-funded enterprises basically do not have such barriers, and they only need to meet the relevant requirements of Article 18 of the “Explanatory Draftâ€. Even if the capacity utilization rate of foreign-funded enterprises is lower than the industry-wide average after two years, they can still choose to expand production in other regions of the world to form economies of scale and reduce costs. Compared with global supply chains and more internationally-funded foreign-funded enterprises, it is not easy for domestic companies to expand overseas. Stop production capacity expansion and promote industrial upgrading The "opinion" requires that a new legal entity for automotive power battery projects should have a product research and development institution and a professional R&D team with experience in R&D. Among them, the monolithic enterprises should master the technology and experimental verification capabilities in materials research and development. The system companies should master the core technologies and test verification capabilities in the development of battery management and thermal management systems. In order to encourage the development of China's new energy automotive industry, in recent years the Chinese government has successively issued a number of new energy vehicle subsidy policies. Affected by the rapid development of the new energy automotive industry, low-level, repetitive power battery projects are blooming everywhere. Batteries China Network believes that the "opinion" this request aims to standardize the new battery power projects in China, and guide enterprises with real technical strength to actively develop the power battery industry and enhance the core competitiveness of China's power battery industry. According to the "opinion", the new vehicle power battery project, the province where the project is located in the last two years, the capacity utilization of vehicle power battery is higher than the national average. This requirement will be conducive to the formation of a battery industry concentrated in some provinces with relatively high maturity. The "Resolutions" require that the proposed facility has a high level of intelligence and can meet the requirements of intelligent manufacturing in the aspects of plant layout, production line design, intelligent equipment investment, digital information management, production environment control, and process control. The single-item project production process shall cover the electrode preparation, chemical conversion, and monomer equipment processes. The system project shall have module production, system assembly and testing capabilities. According to Battery China.com, the production lines of well-known battery companies such as Japan and South Korea have basically realized automation, information, and intelligence. The higher the level of lithium-ion equipment intelligence, the more secure the quality of battery products, while the high-end intelligent industry will also significantly reduce production costs and increase production efficiency, which is an important manifestation of the competitiveness of enterprises. The "Remarks" put forward relevant requirements for the intellectualization level of the newly-built project production line, which will promote the transformation and upgrading of China's power battery production line. The "opinion" requires that the new project should be equipped with a vehicle battery recovery system. On February 26 this year, the “Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Utilization of Power Battery for New Energy Vehicles†issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China has clarified the corresponding responsibilities that related companies should assume in the recovery of power batteries. The battery China Network was informed that the "Contract" was issued on May 17 and was closed on May 25 for comments. The official documents still need to wait for the new battery and expansion requirements for power batteries. However, through the “opinionâ€, it can be seen that the state has strictly controlled the blind expansion of power battery capacity, promoted the transformation and upgrading of the power battery industry, developed high-end products, and enhanced core competitiveness. The determination of the battery power is very firm.
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