Three commercial, TD-LTE leads the 4G strength

After China Mobile officially commercialized the 4G license issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China Telecom and China Unicom also joined in. According to the current license situation, the legal standard for official commercial 4G in China is only TD-LTE. Does this mean TD-? Will LTE monopolize the Chinese communications market?

From the perspective of the international market, the market competition between FDD and TDD is far from over. Although the market share of FDD is higher, TDD has developed rapidly in the past year, and the maturity of the entire industry chain is more and more similar to FDD. Once China The three operators are mainly based on TDD. With the position of the Chinese market in the world communication market, the industrial value of TDD will even appear to exceed the trend of FDD.

Of course, the enthusiasm of China's three operators for TDD is huge, and the development of TD-LTE is not a monolithic one. Different operator strategies are different, and the possible future development directions are also different.

China Mobile is loyal to TDD and puts its main energy and resources into TDD. Even if the government issues FDD licenses, China Mobile will unswervingly adopt more TDD standards. However, China Mobile is working to promote the integration of TDD and FDD, which is also the future direction of China Mobile's 4G.

China Telecom is under great pressure. Whether it is TDD or FDD, its 4G investment will be very large. It turns out that it has to rent China Mobile's TD-LTE network to operate 4G, but China Telecom is most inclined to FDD because FDD's industry matures. Degree also occupies a little advantage, equipment procurement and cost control is relatively easy, but China Telecom has a swing for TDD or FDD, and strategic decisions will affect the future development of China Telecom. Therefore, although China Telecom announced the official commercial 4G, and is the TDD standard, but only for data card users, mobile phone users need to wait and see.

China Unicom is definitely a proponent of FDD from the heart. Its 2G and 3G standards belong to the FDD camp. Although the integration of TDD and FDD has taken shape, China Unicom will have many advantages from 3G if it adopts the FDD standard. At least there is something to say about publicity. At this stage, China Unicom's commercial 4G will also adopt the TDD standard, but in some areas, it will not rule out the clearing of the plank road, the possibility of using FDD in the dark, or directly use the 3G upgrade network to serve as 4G, especially in China Unicom. FDD test network and trial commercial license area.

As far as the current national policy environment is concerned, TD-LTE is labeled with independent intellectual property rights. As long as it is a 4G standard for Chinese enterprises to control or participate in core technologies, the government will not give up, but the Chinese market is as big as China's communications. Operators mainly use this standard and technically promote the integration of TDD and FDD. TDD can grow up, not only in China but also in the world. Therefore, the Chinese government's support for TD-LTE is inevitable and will indirectly affect the decisions of the three operators.

From the analysis of the international situation and the history of informatization, such strategically important choices as the 4G standard have never been completely market-oriented. It is not only the Chinese government, but the influence of European and American governments only seems to be more subtle. Not to mention that the intensifying information security issues in the last two years have touched the nerves of governments and the national protectionism has risen. The Chinese government's greater support for TD-LTE is also reasonable.

However, even if the Chinese government strongly supports the development of TDD, it will certainly not only issue TDD licenses. This aspect is to promote the healthy growth of the entire communications industry chain. On the other hand, it is also to avoid Chinese communication equipment vendors in the international arena. Being isolated, after all, it is not easy for Greater China to have the current situation. Because government actions lead to mutual sanctions, it is not worthwhile. Moreover, China’s equipment does not suffer from FDD R&D and manufacturing.

The extent to which LTE FDD's 4G can develop in China depends mainly on the time when the government issues licenses. If the license of FDD is issued within half a year, China Unicom is currently adopting the strategy of upgrading HSDPH+. It can still insist that China Mobile's TD-LTE network construction is not yet in place, and China Telecom will focus more on FDD development, China's 4G. The market will present a situation of court resistance, and the final ratio of TDD to FDD is expected to be around 3:2. If the FDD license is issued more than one year later, China Unicom and China Telecom will also have to operate TDD and FDD dual network. The integration of TDD and FDD will be implemented effectively. Among the 4G users in the Chinese market, TDD users will account for more than 70%. .

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