Tired to show that the air conditioning industry is preparing for winter in 2012

Abstract: From the second half of 2011, the air-conditioning industry has been exhausted. From rapid growth to near-zero growth, to reversal, the speed of change makes people caught off guard. For this reversal, there is a kind of judgment in the industry that the air-conditioning industry is beginning to enter the winter. How long the winter will last, no one knows for sure. However, in order to survive the winter, besides being psychologically prepared, companies must also work hard on technology, products, sales, and markets. "China Electronics News" will start from the current issue of "air conditioning industry out of the "winter" series of reports, interpretation of air-conditioning companies in 2012 how to "winter."

Since the second half of last year, the momentum of the rapid growth of the air-conditioning industry for many years has been contained. By October, it has become exhausted, with rare negative growth. According to statistics from China Yikang, the cumulative sales volume of the industry in 2011 increased by 1.45%, which was barely positive, but it was not the same as the previous two years. Correspondingly, after entering the cold year of 2012, the operating rate of a considerable number of domestic air-conditioning plants was seriously insufficient, and some small air-conditioning manufacturers had ceased production in July and August of last year. This “cold stream” triggered a chain reaction across the entire industry chain and transmitted to the upper reaches and channels.

In view of the above-mentioned negative news, there are industry insiders assert that the domestic air-conditioning industry is entering the "winter."

Air-conditioning industry faces "winter"

In October 2011, the production and sales of the air-conditioning industry declined, and the first year since May 2009 has dropped.

According to the industry online statistics, in October 2011, air-conditioning industry output fell by 20.66% year-on-year, and sales volume dropped by 16% year-on-year, of which exports fell by nearly 24% year-on-year, and the third consecutive month of negative growth, which hit a record since June 2009. The biggest drop. "This is the scene that the air-conditioning industry has never seen in more than 10 years." Industry online analyst Soo Xiaofang said with emotion.

On the one hand, production and sales continued to decline, and on the other, industry inventories approached the critical point. According to report, as of November 2011, the total inventory of the domestic air-conditioning market exceeded 20 million units, and the distribution warehouses of several brands only appeared in the peak season of the export season from April to June.

The rapid downturn in the air-conditioner market has also directly led to a decline in the operating rate of upstream components and parts of the compressor industry and shrinking orders.

According to a person in charge of a protector manufacturer, the order revenue for the fourth quarter of last year was estimated to be 12 million US dollars in the first half of November. By the end of the month, only about 7 million US dollars will remain. At the same time, as some air-conditioning manufacturers temporarily adjusted orders and extended the time for invoicing, the inventory of compressors continued to increase.

Since last October, the output of major domestic air-conditioning companies has declined to different degrees. An analyst, who did not want to be named, told reporters that at present, leading enterprises such as Gree, Midea, Haier, and Hisense are mainly engaged in the production of variable frequency air conditioners, while other companies' domestic production is basically stagnant, mainly relying on channel replenishment.

The rapid rise of the domestic air-conditioning industry began in June 2009 and ended in October last year. Although there are fluctuations during this period, it is difficult to change the trend of leaping development. Driven by the booming market, major air-conditioning companies have expanded production in order to expand their market share. In just 3 years, the output and sales volume of domestic air conditioners have risen rapidly from more than 50 million units to more than 100 million units.

However, the reversal of production and sales is clearly more rapid. Although the conditions faced by different companies are different, the overall tone of the air-conditioning industry is slightly pessimistic, because from the current point of view, this wave has only just begun.

The trend of policy and inventory

Policy withdrawals and high inventory levels are key factors in the trend.

Suo Xiaofang believes that the development of any industry is an interaction between peaks and troughs, and it is impossible to remain at a peak. In a market where the market is highly competitive and transparent, a slowdown after three years of continuous prosperity is normal.

Therefore, such a result is both unexpected and unexpected. Among them, policy and inventory have become the key factors in the trend.

It may be a coincidence that the air-conditioning industry has changed from “sheng” to “decline” in June last year and foreshadowed the fact that it coincided with the expiry of the energy-saving Huimin project subsidy: In June 2011, the air-conditioning industry also maintained a substantial increase of over 25% year-on-year. Growth, the rate of increase in July and August decreased rapidly until the reversal in October. Zhang Yanbin, Dean of the Orville Consulting and Research Institute, said: “The rapid growth of the air-conditioning industry in the past two years has brought about an important policy cause.” He told reporters that in today's air-conditioning market, manufacturing consumer hotspots are a powerful tool for manufacturers and distributors. The elimination of subsidies for energy-saving and people-friendly projects has made the market less of a hot spot and the headlong of promotions, and has also weakened the release of consumer demand.

The record high inventory is a "Sword of Damocles" suspended above the air-conditioning industry. A certain brand dealer believes that the stock market in the cold market opened in 2012 was abnormally high. First, because there was no continuous high temperature weather in the previous year's peak season in 2011, the stock was backlog; Second, the lessons learned from the previous season's out of stock caused dealers to increase their inventory. The intensity of stocking. The current situation is that air-conditioning companies have not slowed their shipments to the channel, but the retail market has continued to slump, resulting in an increase in total inventory. High inventory increases the financial pressure on companies and distributors, and disrupts the normal rhythm of enterprise product distribution.

Suo Xiaofang frankly stated that, in addition to the above-mentioned micro-level factors, from the macro level, China's economic restructuring and the low demand of overseas markets have made the external environment of the air-conditioning industry more complicated.

Untraceable Optimism in 2012

Increasing efficiency and adjusting product structure on existing scale platforms are issues that companies must consider.

The above-mentioned analysts who do not want to be named believe that the current industry's dilemma is not a single factor, so it is difficult to predict how long this “winter” will last. However, at least one thing is certain that the growth of the air-conditioning industry in 2012 will not be very high.

Yang Zhigang, an analyst with Guodu Securities Household Appliances, predicts that the air-conditioner production and sales volume both fell sharply in October last year, which means that the period of high-speed growth of the industry has passed and the domestic air-conditioning industry has entered an adjustment period. Zhang Yanbin said that in the air conditioning industry, the first quarter of 2012 may be the most difficult. A certain person in charge of Meizhi judged that optimistic estimates that the traditional sales season is approaching, the situation may be changed, but pessimistic judgment, the industry downturn may have to go through a year. More views are that in 2012 or the turning point of the industry, if there is no follow-up stimulus policy, the air-conditioning industry will no longer be “radical” forward.

Suo Xiaofang pointed out that the scale of the air-conditioning industry has exceeded 100 million units. Such a large scale will determine that the space for further improvement will be relatively small. Under such circumstances, how to increase efficiency and adjust product structure on existing scale platforms is an issue that companies must consider. The United States has taken the initiative to slow down in July of last year, and started the adjustment strategy. The innovation of technology and products will become a new engine for its future development.

In addition, the huge domestic market demand is still worth the wait. The average annual demand for air conditioners in the rural market is about 8 million units. The construction of affordable housing will also provide a huge demand space. With the improvement of the living standards of our residents and the deep roots of green and low-carbon thinking, the development of inverter air conditioners also presents great opportunities.

"For companies, complaining about people does not help, or to adapt to the current market environment as soon as possible, and to formulate appropriate measures in a timely manner." Xiaoyao Fang said.

Appliance Observation

The situation is not so bad

Recently, a deep sense of pessimism filled the air-conditioning industry. Some companies are concerned that "several years of hard work have returned to liberation."

In fact, the situation is not so bad. Judging from the external environment, there should not be any worse negative news in the near future. From the perspective of the industry, after the peak, the emergence of a trough also conforms to the law of development. After careful analysis, the future market space for the air-conditioning industry is still huge: During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, it is expected that more than 20 million air conditioners will need to be renewed each year in the country; the annual demand for air conditioners in the rural market will be around 8 million units; The comprehensive rollout of housing construction will also bring huge demand. Moreover, the more than three years of prosperity has also covered many issues in the air-conditioning industry. Now is the time to slow down and strive to improve management, operations, and technology, and improve internal strength.

First and foremost, prepare to tighten your belt and live your life. In times of depression, companies need to reduce costs and reduce expenditures. Some non-urgent or unnecessary investments and projects are reduced or even cut off. At the same time, efforts are made to increase production efficiency. Second, adjust the product structure. The "Recommendation of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Development of the Chinese Household Appliance Industry" also suggests that the frequency conversion products must occupy half of the air conditioners in the next five years, and 80% in 2020. Not only that, but product upgrades can also increase the profitability of corporate units. Third, deepen the tertiary and tertiary markets. The potential of the tertiary and tertiary markets is huge, and the driving force for the growth of the air-conditioning industry is obvious to all. "The rural market has become the world", this sentence will be more fully interpreted in the coming years. However, how to implement differentiated services, strengthen sales and after-sales channel construction, and even balance investment in urban and rural markets based on the consumption level and characteristics of the rural market will test the wisdom of the company.

Finally, we must work hard on product quality and performance. It may take decades to create a brand, and destroying a brand may be just a moment. In tough times, the care of product quality highlights the company's strength and self-discipline. In addition, in recent years, there has been no revolutionary change in air-conditioning technology. If companies increase investment in R&D and insist on innovation, they will make a substantial breakthrough or exchange a blue ocean. (Autumn)

expert's point

Wang Jinliang, Vice President of the China Business Unit of Midea Refrigeration Appliance Group:

"Competitive competition in the whole industry chain determines the development and trend of air-conditioning companies."

Without inverter air conditioners, there will be no future. In 2011, I visited a number of towns and villages in northern Anhui and found that the sale of inverter air conditioners in the township franchise stores in the United States accounted for more than half of the sales. In 2012, the increase in the popularity of inverter air conditioners will mainly come from the third and fourth-tier markets, with an increase higher than the first and second-tier markets. Although the market potential of the tertiary and tertiary markets is huge, it is not easy to do. Because in the primary and secondary markets, there are chain supermarkets, as long as there is resources to support, it is relatively easy to enter the market; and to open up the third and fourth-level markets need to work on products, channels, after-sales and promotion. The air-conditioning industry will be “clearly cloudy” in 2012. In order to be accustomed to low growth in the future, it is necessary to improve profitability by reducing costs, adjusting product mix, and optimizing channels.

The future air-conditioning industry will be the entire industry chain competition. In recent years, a number of home appliance giants have actively expanded from manufacturing the key components to the upstream components, which means that competition in the entire industry chain will determine the development and trend of air conditioners.

Shi Hong, Director, White Power, Beijing Yikang Times Market Research Co., Ltd.

"In the weak market environment, it is critical for companies to make product plans and build sales networks."

After two rapid years of rapid growth, the outlook for the air conditioning market in the cold year of 2012 is not optimistic. High inventory will inevitably cause companies to bear heavy performance burdens in the next year.

In the weak market environment, companies will rely more on eroding their share of competitors for growth. Therefore, it is critical to make product plans and build sales networks. First, we need to accurately target product demand at all levels of the market. In the primary market and the secondary market, we grasped the opportunity for product upgrades, while the tertiary and tertiary markets relied mainly on volume to gain share. Second, speed up the construction of distribution networks. Haier is accelerating its network layout and construction, and will soon complete the acquisition of after-sales services and Haier Mall's online sales platform. In the first half of the year, the total number of stores in the United States exceeded 12,000, and there were nearly 130,000 outlets for air, ice, and washing. Whether the company can achieve a peak-turn in the 2012 cold-year fluctuations, the situation is uncertain, but overall, the pressure for companies to seek new growth points will be even greater.