The rapid development of artificial intelligence will really threaten the status of human beings?
Without constructive opinions about the future workforce, our fear of artificial intelligence may become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Our obsession with artificial intelligence is not difficult to understand: Over the years, from Elon Musk and Mark Benioff to Bill Gates, many of Silicon Valley's best-known entrepreneurs have warned about the upcoming wave of automation. , saying they may threaten our work and lifestyle. At the World Economic Forum in Davos this year, Ma Yun, the founder of Alibaba, reiterated his prediction that artificial intelligence and robots will not only occupy a large number of jobs, but also launch the Third World War. But Ma’s comments are out of date this year. Compared with the robotic rulers who imagined the future, the vast majority of participants in the Davos Forum said that they now envision artificial intelligence to enhance our strength, rather than replace it. Think about Iron Man, not the Terminator. However, in addition to the predictions of Ma Yun on the Davos Forum, Elon Musk or Steve Woznick predicted that it is not a good thing to be alarmist when predicting future employment. The spread of fear may create a bleak future that all of us want to avoid. Imagining negative outcomes can help us better prepare for the future, but it may also help to produce these negative outcomes. Simply put, we can't turn our anxiety into a self-fulfilling prophecy. According to the Pew Research Center, the number of Americans who are anxious about promoting job automation is almost twice as likely as those who are excited. Among American adults, 72% said they were worried about "a robot and a computer capable of doing the future of many jobs that are currently done by humans." The latest poll of artificial intelligence released by Gallup in January showed that many Americans are "optimistic about the impact of new technologies on their lives and work over the next 10 years." At the same time, three-quarters of Americans believe that artificial intelligence destroys more jobs than they create jobs. These are frustrating statistics because they are self-reinforcing. If more and more people think that robots can replace their jobs, what motivation do they have to invest in learning new skills? Will their next job be automated? How can a worker decide what new skills to learn if they are unable to answer these questions? But if the opposite is true, we envision positive potential outcomes, and we can make plans by discussing how best to move toward these positive outcomes. Fortunately, the new study provides us with a practical guide to think about solutions to future employment situations, and by helping to promote constructive dialogue, new research has alleviated anxiety about these fears. In January, the World Economic Forum and the Boston Consulting Group published a report titled “Towards a Retraining Revolution†aimed at “for those who wish to find their place in the future job market, and those who wish to build more Prosperous businesses, more productive economic and social business leaders and governments create a component." Using the US labor market, this report examines jobs that are most likely to disappear as a result of technological change, and then examines the practical work options available to displaced people. No one knows how fast artificial intelligence will develop, but without knowing this, it is impossible to know how many jobs will actually disappear. According to a 2016 study by the OECD, 9% of jobs are threatened with automation, while another study shows that 50% of jobs will be automated. A joint report by the World Economic Forum and the Boston Consulting Group shows that the number of unemployed may not actually matter. why? Because the report found that skills that apply to jobs that currently face automation risks will help these workers move to new career paths, these occupations face less automation risk. The job market is not static, the proportion of machines is getting bigger and bigger, and human beings are getting smaller and smaller, and new technologies have created new jobs. The car eliminated horses and carriages, but replaced by a huge automotive industry. In the 1980s and 1990s, banks began to install ATMs everywhere, and people thought bank tellers would be unemployed, but that was not the case. Banks use labor-saving technology to open more banks, turning the work of cashiers into more like a customer service representative. Today, banks hire more cashiers than in 1980. Of course, we can't expect the replaced coal miners to become software engineers. So what skills can be transformed into new jobs? As a result, many skills can be transformed. The US Department of Labor estimates that by 2026, 1.4 million workers will be displaced due to technological mutations. But when the World Economic Forum conducted research on the Department of Labor data, the analysis found that 96% of the 1.4 million workers found “fit†jobs. Office staff may be replaced, but their skills can be well translated into customer service representatives. Also, the software may replace the legal secretary, but their skills can make it a great candidate for a paralegal. Although few countries have taken action in this area, there are some examples of countries that illustrate the possibility of which aspects. Singapore has launched a lifelong learning program that focuses on developing future-oriented skills to help increase worker productivity. The World Economic Forum also praised apprenticeship and vocational training programs in Germany and Switzerland. For example, the German Vocational Education Act provides 2-3 years of classroom instruction and paid on-the-job apprenticeship training for 500,000 Germans. Unfortunately, the United States has not taken action and there is no national plan to solve this problem. Although many discussions have revolved around the concept of basic income for all, this is not the solution to the problem. Education and training are the core, and the solution to these problems is the most urgent. For example, AT&T announced a $1 billion retraining program. The company has one of the world's largest labor markets, and the company decided to take action when research showed that only half of its employees had the STEM skills they needed (Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths science, technology, engineering and mathematics). Bill Bryce, senior vice president of human resources at AT&T, said the company chose "trying to realign the skills of existing employees to be able to handle the skills and skills needed to run the business in the future." Although AT&T's initiatives are promising, I have not heard of any public-private partnership like Germany or Switzerland that can train 1.4 million American workers. The US government's own analysis predicts that these workers will be replaced within eight years. At present, the proportion of expenditure on vocational training in the United States is lower than that in almost all countries in developed countries. But this situation may change, we must enter the next stage of automated preparation, because we can either build the future we want or be changed by the future. First, we must change our conversations, from less anxious predictions to more discussions on how to work toward positive outcomes. 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